A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
